{"id":277,"date":"2012-11-25T05:31:51","date_gmt":"2012-11-25T05:31:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/?p=277"},"modified":"2012-11-25T05:31:51","modified_gmt":"2012-11-25T05:31:51","slug":"povesti-financiare-iv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/2012\/11\/25\/povesti-financiare-iv\/","title":{"rendered":"Povesti Financiare IV"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><strong>Concluzii<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Pe scurt\u00a0?! <strong>Situa\u021bia este at\u00e2t de \u00eempu\u021bit\u0103, at\u00e2t de complex\u0103 \u00eenc\u00e2t NIMENI nu are nici o idee cum poate fi rezolvat\u0103 de\u0219i fiecare pretinde c\u0103 are una.<\/strong> Se merge \u00eenainte pe ghicite. Guvernele lumii se confrunt\u0103 zi de zi \u00ab\u00a0Unde dai \u0219i unde crap\u0103\u00a0\u00bb. Se caut\u0103 de ani \u00eentregi o solu\u021bie care s\u0103 \u00eempace\u00a0 \u0219i capra \u0219i varza \u0219i lupul&#8230; \u0219i a\u0219a ceva nu exist\u0103. \u0218i fiecare zi \u00een care dezastrul cel mare nu se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103, e o zi care ne apropie de un dezastru \u00eenc\u0103 \u0219i mai mare.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Dup\u0103 c\u00e2teva baloane de s\u0103pun care s-au spart, a venit r\u0103ndul balonului pie\u021bii imobiliare. Adep\u021bii lui <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Keynesian_economics\" target=\"_blank\">Keynes<\/a> \u2013 care spunea c\u0103 printr-o injec\u021bie de fonduri, criza din 1933 ar fi putut fi evitat\u0103 &#8211; \u0219i ai pie\u021bii libere, brusc, n-au mai putut tr\u0103i cu consecin\u021bele unei pie\u021be libere (faliment, dezastru) \u0219i de ani buni tiparesc dolari \u0219i euro ca \u0219i cum m\u00eeine nu mai vine (dar va veni). Nici un politician nu vrea s\u0103-\u0219i asume riscul de a crea o criz\u0103 ur\u00e2t\u0103 pe timpul guvern\u0103rii lor \u0219i accept\u0103 orice inginerii financiare care am\u00e2n\u0103 momentul adev\u0103rului. Aceasta se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u0219i \u00een US \u0219i \u00een Europa, banii se devalorizeaz\u0103 \u2013 lucru care ar fi bun (face produsele competitive la export) &#8211; dar care se va traduce \u00eentr-o infla\u021bie galopant\u0103 \u00een momentul \u00een care scap\u0103 din m\u00een\u0103.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ordin de m\u0103rime\u00a0<\/strong>: <em>Cineva, <strong>\u00eenainte<\/strong> de QE3 (un nou ajutor dat de Federal Reserve, in valoarea de 1 trilion USD \u0219i \u00eenainte ca ECB \u2013 Banca Centrala Europeana s\u0103 decid\u0103 c\u0103 vor cump\u0103ra c\u00e2te bonduri guvernamentale va fi nevoie), a f\u0103cut un calcul aritmetic care, ca un minim a demonstrat c\u00e2t de departe s-a ajuns fa\u021b\u0103 de standardul de aur. A convertit la USD si apoi a adunat masa monetar\u0103 a planetei, apoi a \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bit-o la tot aurul existent (\u00een rezerve federale, la investitori sau \u00een posesia popula\u021biei). <strong>Dup\u0103 acest calcul, uncia de aur ar trebui s\u0103 coste&#8230; 25,000$<\/strong>. Si tiparnita inca merge!<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00cen paralel cu aceste baloane de s\u0103pun care aruncau America de Nord \u00een criz\u0103, \u0219i al\u0103turi de ea, \u00eentreaga lume, cu accent pe sistemul bancar european, \u00een Europa orgia de cheltuial\u0103 iresponsabil\u0103 care a urmat introducerii bancnotei comune devenea evident\u0103. Ani \u00eentregi de via\u021b\u0103 prea bun\u0103, de protec\u021bie social\u0103 bazate pe economii s\u0103n\u0103toase, na\u021bionale, protec\u021bioniste care se \u00eencearc\u0103 a fi continuate (de politicieni, de frica de a nu-\u0219i nemul\u021bumi aleg\u0103torii) \u0219i \u00eentr-o economie global\u0103 unde exist\u0103 competi\u021bie direct\u0103, neprotejat\u0103, cu muncitorul malaiesian sau cu cel chinez (unde costurile de produc\u021bie sunt extrem de reduse \u0219i beneficiile practic inexistente) au pus Europa \u00een genunchi. Idio\u021benia unei monede unice f\u0103r\u0103 pedepse stipulate pentru cei ce cheltuiesc prea mult, f\u0103r\u0103 o strategie financiar\u0103 unificate, este alt\u0103 problem\u0103. Premiza c\u0103 salaria\u021bii greci, spanioli, italieni, acesti bonviveuri, vor accepta cu acela\u0219i stoicism curbele de sacrificiu din Letonia, Irlanda, este iara\u0219i o viziune gre\u0219it\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>B\u0103ncile europene, \u00eenc\u0103 slabite enorm din urma crizei ipotecare din US (\u0219i nu numai) au fost silite, al\u0103turi de ECB, s\u0103 subven\u021bioneze dezastrele na\u021bionale. Fran\u021ba (Sarkozy) \u0219i Germania (Merkel) au f\u0103cut presiuni majore asupra b\u0103ncilor ca s\u0103 accepte 50% pierderi \u00een \u00eemprumuturile spre Grecia, d\u00e2ndu-le o nou\u0103 lovitur\u0103. Aceea\u0219i strategie a fost folosit\u0103 \u0219i pentru ECB \u2013 acum c\u00e2teva luni, c\u00e2\u021biva directori germani de la v\u00e2rful acestei b\u0103nci centrale, \u0219i-au dat demisia pentru c\u0103 nu erau de acord cu presiunile politice.<\/p>\n<h2>Dezastrul in numere<\/h2>\n<p>Nimeni nu \u0219tie cu exactitate toate pierderile \u00eenregistrate de guvernele lumii, b\u0103nci \u0219i investitori priva\u021bi. Iat\u0103 totu\u0219i c\u00e2teva numere pentru exemplificare\u00a0:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00cen 2008, guvernul american a alocat 900 miliarde $ pentru salvarea institu\u021biilor implicate \u00een crash-ul imobiliar<\/li>\n<li>\u00cen 2005, proprietarii de case au extras 750 miliarde din equity-ul caselor lor ( valoarea casei estimata MINUS valoarea ipotecii), consum\u00e2nd 2\/3 din aceast\u0103 sum\u0103 \u00een plata c\u0103r\u021bilor de credit, consum personal \u0219i \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021birea caselor<\/li>\n<li>Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) \u0219i Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) \u2013 institu\u021bii federale care gi rau creditele de ipotec\u0103 aveau, \u00een 2008, \u00eenregistrate 5 TRILIOANE dolari \u00een \u00eemprumuturi \u0219i garan\u021bii pentru \u00eemprumuturi<\/li>\n<li>Un <a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/blogs\/daily-ticker\/2008-financial-crisis-cost-americans-12-8-trillion-145432501.html\" target=\"_blank\">raport<\/a> <strong>conservativ<\/strong> despre pierderile crizei din 2008 NUMAI ALE US: minim 12.8\u00a0 TRILIOANE $<\/li>\n<li>In 2008, \u00een total, liderii europeni au folosit 1.5 TRILIOANE EU pentru salvarea b\u0103ncilor \u0219i a fluxului interbancar. Numai Germania a oferit 500 miliarde pt aceast\u0103 salvare a b\u0103ncilor ei, mult mai mult per capita dec\u00e2t US.<\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve avea deja, \u00een 2010, 2.1 TRILIARDE din datoriile b\u0103ncilor, note de tresorerie etc. \u2013 pl\u0103tite cu bani \u00ab\u00a0crea\u021bi\u00a0\u00bb. \u00cen Septembrie 2012, a lansat QE3: cump\u0103r\u00e2nd datorii \u00een valoare de 40 miliarde $\/lun\u0103. ECB a promis cat va fi nevoie!!!<\/li>\n<li>Din New York Times\u00a0: <em>B\u0103ncile europene au expunere de 998.7 miliarde euro la Italia, mai mult de \u0219ase ori dec\u00e2t cele 162.4 miliarde euro la Grecia. Mai au 774 miliarde euro expunere la Spania \u0219i 534 miliarde de euro la Irlanda. B\u0103ncile din US au expunere la Italia mai mult dec\u00e2t la orice alt\u0103 \u021bar\u0103 europeana, aproximativ 269 miliarde de euro, conform cifrelor Barclay. La Spania expunerea e estimat\u0103 la 179 miliarde euro. <\/em>Adunarea mea arat\u0103 \u2013 o cifr\u0103 care nu cuprinde \u0219i alte datorii europene\u00a0: 2917 MILIARDE = 2.9 TRILIARDE.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Link-uri edificatoare<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Ceasul datoriei publice mondiale\u00a0: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/content\/global_debt_clock\">Global Debt Clock<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Film despre criz\u0103\u00a0(\u0219i eu m-am \u00eentins pe at\u00e2tea pagini): <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=qqUGoVez8xg\">Criza explicata pe simplu<\/a><\/li>\n<li>\u00ce&amp;R despre criza din Spania \u0219i Grecia: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-13798000\">Q&amp;A[subscribe2]<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Concluzii Pe scurt\u00a0?! Situa\u021bia este at\u00e2t de \u00eempu\u021bit\u0103, at\u00e2t de complex\u0103 \u00eenc\u00e2t NIMENI nu are nici o idee cum poate fi rezolvat\u0103 de\u0219i fiecare pretinde c\u0103 are una. Se merge \u00eenainte pe ghicite. Guvernele lumii se confrunt\u0103 zi de zi \u00ab\u00a0Unde dai \u0219i unde crap\u0103\u00a0\u00bb. Se caut\u0103 de ani \u00eentregi o solu\u021bie care s\u0103 \u00eempace\u00a0<span class=\"excerpt-ellipsis\">&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/2012\/11\/25\/povesti-financiare-iv\/\" itemprop=\"url\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentary","category-food-for-thought","category-savvy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=277"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":279,"href":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277\/revisions\/279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=277"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=277"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.2link.ca\/newblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=277"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}